Saturday, September 27, 2008

Post-Season Play: Another Look

UPDATED 09/30/08

The World Series of major-league baseball was initiated in 1903 as a showdown between the best team in each league, the toddling American League (born 1901) and the twenty-something National League (born 1876). So far, so good, but with the advent of two-tiered post-season play in 1969 and three-tiered post-season play in 1995, each league often has not been represented by its best team.

Three-tiered play begins with four teams in each league: the three division leaders and a wild-card team (the team with the best record among the three second-place finishers). As a result, all sorts of distortions are possible. Here's a list of them, by season (derived from Baseball-Reference.com):

1996, National League: Los Angeles entered post-season play as a wild-card team (thus losing "home field advantage"), even though it had a better record than St. Louis, which had the best record in its division. Moreover, Montreal didn't gain a playoff berth, even though its record was as good as that of St. Louis.

1997, National League: Houston led its division with the sixth-best record in the league. Florida, with a better record than Houston, was the wild-card team. New York and Los Angeles didn't make it into the playoffs, even though both had better records than Houston.

1997, American League: Wild-card New York had a better record than division leaders Cleveland and Seattle.

1998, American League: Boston repeated New York's experience of the prior year, boasting a better record than division leaders Cleveland and Texas. Toronto, with the same record as Texas, missed the playoffs.

2000, American League: New York entered post-season play as a division titlist but with the fifth-best record in the league. Seattle (the wild-card team) had a better record than New York, as did Cleveland, which didn't get into the playoffs.

2001, National League: Atlanta entered post-season play as a division titlist but with the fifth-best record in the league. St. Louis (the wild-card team) had a better record than that of Atlanta, as did San Francisco, which didn't get into the playoffs.

2001, American League: Oakland, the wild-card team, had a better record than division titlists New York and Cleveland.

2002, American League: Anaheim, the wild-card team, had a better record than Minnesota, which entered the playoffs as a division leader.

2003, National League: Ditto for Florida vs. Chicago.

2003, American League: Minnesota led its division with the league's fifth-best record, relegating third-best Boston to wild-card status and denying fourth-best Seattle a playoff spot.

2004, American League: Boston had to settle for the wild-card slot with a better record than Minnesota and Anaheim, division leaders both.

2005, National League: San Diego entered post-season play as a division winner, despite having a worse record than Houston (the wild-card team) and three teams that missed the playoffs (Philadelphia, Florida, New York).

2006, National League: St. Louis entered the playoffs as a division titlist, denying Philadelphia a slot with its fourth-best record and relegating third-place Los Angeles to the wild-card spot.

2006, American League: Wild-card Detroit had a better record than division-leading Oakland.

2007, National League: Chicago led its division with the sixth-best record in the league. Second-best Colorado took the wild-card spot despite having a better record than both Chicago and Philadelphia (another division leader). New York and San Diego, both with better records than Chicago, missed the playoffs.

2008, National League: Los Angeles enters post-season play as a division winner, with the league's eighth-best record.

2008, American League: Chicago enters post-season play as a division winner, with the league's fifth-best record.

Here's my solution to this mess. Realign the leagues so that each has 15 teams, spread evenly among three divisions: 1, 2, and 3. The teams in division 1 would be the 5 teams with the best W-L records in the preceding season; division 2 would comprise the middle 5 teams; division 3, the worst 5 teams. To eliminate the biasing effects on W-L records of unbalanced schedules (which have been the norm for decades), each team would play the same number of games (home and away) against each of the other teams in its league. There would be no interleague play during the regular season.

These arrangements would make for more competitive divisions. The teams in division 1 would vie to finish first in order to advance to the World Series. The World Series would be a best-of-nine affair to mitigate (somewhat) the role of luck and the ability of a team to "recycle" its best pitchers more often than in the regular season.

Division 1 teams also would strive to remain in division 1, and thus in contention for World Series slots. The teams in divisions 2 and 3 would strive for the honor of division leadership and foradvancement to higher divisions -- and, through advancement to division 1, a shot at participating in the World Series.

It's time to make the regular-season meaningful and, therefore, to end the practice of giving mediocre teams a shot at the World Series. It's time to make the World Series what it was for 64 seasons: a showdown between the best of the AL and the best of the NL. My proposal would accomplish all of that.