The End of a Dynasty

UPDATED

The Yankees' recent record [written 09/26/10] -- 4 straight losses, 6-12 in the past three weeks, .529 since the All-Star break -- suggests that their third dynasty may be drawing to a close [but not quite, see below]. It would be unsurprising if that turns out to be so. Where are the replacements for Jeter, Posada, Pettitte, and Rivera, whose average age is 38? A-Rod is close behind, at 34, and not the A-Rod of a few years ago. Tex, at 30, is on the cusp of decline, and his numbers show it. Of the younger generation of position players, only Robinson Cano exudes star quality. Curtis Granderson is no Bernie Williams; Nick Swisher, no Paul O'Neill.

The only reliable starter is CC Sabathia. A.J. Burnett and Javier Vasquez don't belong on a championship-calibre team. Phil Hughes isn't convincing, despite his 17 wins. The bullpen reminds me of a rowboat in a hurricane. Even Mariano has become a question mark.

Given the evident dearth of outstanding young players, the end of the present dynasty seems to be in sight -- or perhaps visible in the rear-view mirror. The 2009 World Series may have marked the end of Yankees Dynasty III.

Dynasty I lasted from 1921, the year of the Yankees' first AL championship, to 1964, the year of their 29th AL championship. There were some "down" years sprinkled throughout the period -- most notably, 1925, the year of the Babe's big stomach ache, when the Yankees finished seventh in the days of the eight-team league. But the Yankees never went more than four seasons without a pennant, and finished below third (in eight- and ten-team leagues) only twice. Overall record in 44 seasons: 29 league championships and 20 World Series championships.

Dynasty II lasted only six seasons: 1976-1981. The Yankees led their division in four of those years, and wound up with the AL crown in 1981, despite an overall fourth-place finish, thanks to the split season (due to a players' strike) and a post-season playoff to determine the division winner. Overall record in six seasons: 5 division championships, 4 league championships, and 2 World Series championships.

Dynasty III (on the current evidence) lasted 16 19 seasons: 1994-2009 2012. Overall record: 14 17 appearances in post-season play, 12 14 division championships, 7 league championships, and 5 World Series championships. (Don't forget that in 1994 the Yankees had no opportunity to compete for a league or World Series championship because a players' strike wiped out post-season play.) That's a lot better than Dynasty II and a lot worse than Dynasty I.

In the following graph [updated to include the 2011-13 seasons], the black line indicates the Yankees' finishes in the American League (1901-1968) or Eastern Division of the AL (1969-2013). The red, horizontal bars indicate the number of teams in the league or division, for each season. The blue shading highlights the years of the Yankees' dynasties, to date. It looks like the end for Dynasty III -- and end that coincides with the retirements of Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettite, the final declines of Jeter and A-Rod.

Team W-L Histories: 1901-2009

In the course of preparing the three preceding posts, I compiled the table below. Note that the American League's overall record is slightly better than the National League's. That's because of the AL's edge in interleague play, which continues into 2010.

Won-Lost records, 1901-2009
(franchise histories at bottom of table)
National League
Team	Games	Won	Lost	W-L%
Giants	16994	9070	7834	.537
Dodgers	16995	8841	8065	.523
Cardinals	17006	8774	8128	.519
Pirates	16993	8607	8292	.509
Cubs	17012	8545	8367	.505
Reds	17010	8484	8436	.501
Diamondbacks	1944	970	974	.499
Astros	7652	3812	3835	.498
Braves	16983	8168	8708	.484
Mets	7644	3655	3981	.479
Marlins	2686	1283	1403	.478
Nationals	6511	3098	3409	.476
Rockies	2692	1281	1411	.476
Phillies	16955	7830	9051	.464
Padres	6518	3008	3508	.462
Brewers	1943	889	1053	.458
NL totals	173538	86315	86455	.4996
American League
Team	Games	Won	Lost	W-L%
Yankees	16962	9575	7294	.568
Red Sox	16973	8730	8160	.517
Indians	16987	8622	8274	.510
Tigers	17013	8564	8356	.506
White Sox	16982	8540	8339	.506
Angels	7811	3887	3921	.498
Blue Jays	5224	2589	2632	.496
Athletics	16947	8189	8671	.486
Royals	6505	3143	3360	.483
Twins	16995	8138	8748	.482
Brewers	4570	2200	2367	.482
Orioles	16986	8013	8863	.475
Mariners	5223	2461	2760	.471
Rangers	7797	3657	4134	.469
Rays	1941	826	1115	.426
AL totals	174916	87134	86994	.5004
Franchise histories:
National League
Giants in San Francisco, 1985- ; in New York (also as Gothams), 1883-1957
Dodgers in Los Angeles, 1958 - ; in Brooklyn (also as Robins, Bridegrooms, Grooms), 1890-1957); previously in American Association (as Bridegrooms, Grays, Atlantics), 1884-1889
Cardinals in St. Louis (also as Perfectos, Browns), 1892- ; previously in American Association (as Browns, Brown Stockings), 1882-1891
Pirates in Pittsburgh (also as Alleghenys), 1887- ; previously in American Association (as Alleghenys), 1882-1886
Cubs in Chicago (also as Orphans, Colts, White Stockings), 1876-
Reds in Cincinnati (also as Redlegs), 1890- ; previously in American Association (as Red Stockings), 1882-1889
Diamondbacks in Arizona (Phoenix), 1998-
Astros in Houston (also as Colt .45's), 1962-
Braves in Atlanta, 1966- ; in Milwaukee, 1953-1965; in Boston (also as Bees, Rustlers, Doves, Beaneaters, Red Caps), 1876-1952
Mets in New York, 1962-
Marlins in Florida (Miami), 1993-
Nationals in Washington, 2005- ; in Montreal (as Expos), 1969-2004
Rockies in Colorado (Denver), 1993-
Phillies in Philadelphia (also as Quakers), 1883-
Padres in San Diego, 1969-
Brewers in Milwaukee, 1998- (see AL entry for previous history)
American League
Yankees in New York (also as Highlanders), 1903- ; in Baltimore (as Orioles), 1901-1902
Red Sox in Boston (also as Americans), 1901-
Indians in Cleveland (also as Naps, Bronchos, Blues), 1901-
Tigers in Detroit, 1901-
White Sox in Chicago, 1901-
Angels in Anaheim, 1961- , but indentified variously as Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Anaheim Angels, California Angels, Los Angeles Angels
Blue Jays in Toronto, 1977-
Athletics in Oakland, 1968- ; in Kansas City, 1955-1967; in Philadelphia, 1901-1954
Twins in Minnesota (Minneapolis), 1961- ; in Washington (as Senators), 1901-1960
Royals in Kansas City, 1969-
Brewers in Milwaukee, 1970-1997; in Seattle (as Pilots), 1969
Orioles in Baltimore, 1954- ; in St. Louis (as Browns), 1902-1953; in Milwaukee (as Brewers), 1901
Rangers in Texas (Arlington), 1972- ; in Washington (as Senators) 1961-1971
Mariners in Seattle, 1977-
Rays in Tampa Bay (St. Petersburg, also as Devil Rays), 1998-

A Simpler Pythagorean Formula

According to an article posted in the "Bullpen" at Baseball-Reference.com, the Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball

relates the number of runs a team has scored and surrendered to its actual winning percentage....

There are two ways of calculating Pythagorean Winning Percentage (W%). The more commonly used, and simpler version uses an exponent of 2 in the formula.

W%=[(Runs Scored)^2]/[(Runs Scored)^2 + (Runs Allowed)^2]

More accurate versions of the formula use 1.81 or 1.83 as the exponent.

W%=[(Runs Scored)^1.81]/[(Runs Scored)^1.81 + (Runs Allowed)^1.81]

An analysis of statistics available at Baseball-Reference.com, which include expected W%, yields the following straightforward version of the Pythagorean expectation:

W% = 1.8195*RS% - 0.4098, where

W% = games won/(games won + games lost),

RS% = runs scored/(runs scored + runs allowed), and

* indicates multiplication.

The Pythagorean formula used by Baseball-Reference.com bears a strong resemblance to the long-term (1901-2009) relationship between W% and RS%, which is:

W% = 1.8372*RS% - 0.4191

This equation is no longer accurate, however. Nor is any equation that neglects the evolution of the game through its six "modern" eras: Deadball (1901-1919), Lively Ball I (1920-1941), Wartime Lull (1942-1946), Lively Ball II (1947-1961), High Plateau (1962-1993), and Juiced Player (1994-2xxx). Here are the formulae for each of the six eras:

Deadball

W% = 1.7679 * RS% - 0.3843

Lively Ball I

W% = 1.8965 * RS% - 0.4482

Wartime Lull

W% = 1.7389 * RS% - 0.3686

Lively Ball II

W% = 1.8704*RS% - 0.4377

High Plateau

W% = 1.7521*RS% - 0.3760

Juiced Player

W% = 1.9882*RS% - 0.4940

This final equation seems like the one to use, until there is a marked change in the style of play. Results will vary from year to year, of course. Here, for example, is the equation for 2009:

W% = 1.9419*RS% - 0.4707

Related post: Explaining a Team's W-L Record

The Six Eras of Baseball

In the preceding post, I identified six eras of "modern" baseball:

1901-1919 -- Deadball ("modern")

1920-1941 -- Lively Ball I

1942-1946 -- Wartime Lull

1947-1961 -- Lively Ball II

1962-1993 -- High Plateau

1994-2xxx -- Juiced Player

These six eras have distinctive characters, which are captured in the following table:

				Change from 1901-1919
		Runs per	HR per	Add'l runs	Add'l HR	Runs per
Era	# Teams	game	game	per game	per game	add'l HR
1901-1919	16	7.84	0.30
1920-1941	16	9.69	0.97	1.85	0.67	2.76
1942-1946	16	8.14	0.88	0.30	0.58	0.52
1947-1961*	18	8.91	1.62	1.07	1.32	0.81
1962-1993**	26	8.37	1.56	0.53	1.26	0.42
1994-2009***	30	9.62	1.63	1.78	1.33	1.34
1994-2009	"old 16"	9.73
1901-2009	30	8.82
1901-2009	"old 16"	8.85
* 2 expansion teams in 1961
** 2 expansion teams in 1962; 4 in 1969; 2 in 1977; 2 in 1993
*** 2 expansion teams in 1998

Lively Ball Era I was the most dynamic era to date. There were more home runs than in the Deadball era, to be sure, but it is evident that much of the "small ball" action of the Deadball era carried over into Lively Ball I.

The Wartime Lull was just that. There were more home runs than in the Deadball era, but every home run netted only 0.52 runs on the scoreboard. Think of batters reaching base and mostly waiting around for a home run to be hit, usually to no avail.

The next two eras -- Lively Ball II and High Plateau -- saw a resurgence of home-run hitting, but run production didn't return to the level of Lively Ball II. Again, there was a lot of waiting around for home runs, usually to no avail.

The era of the Juiced Player rivals (but falls short of) the dynamism of Lively Ball I. Yes, a lot more home runs per game (what would you expect?), but not quite the same number of runs per game.

I have always had the impression that baseball in the 1920s and 1930s was baseball at its exciting best: power added to the "small ball" wiles of the Deadball era. The numbers seem to confirm that impression.

EXTRA INNINGS:

The runs-per-game figures for the "old 16" teams -- the franchises in existence from 1901 through 1960 -- suggest that those teams have done better than the expansion upstarts. In fact, for the Juiced Player era (1994-2009), the "old 16" have a W-L record of .512.

But not all of the "old 16" have fared well. Here are the W-L rankings of the "old 16" for the period 1994-2009:

Rank (of 30)	Team	G	W	L	W-L%
1	NYY	2524	1514	1007	.601
2	ATL	2525	1456	1068	.577
3	BOS	2526	1409	1117	.558
4	CLE	2523	1353	1170	.536
5	STL	2525	1347	1176	.534
7	LAD	2526	1336	1190	.529
9	OAK	2524	1312	1212	.520
10	CHW	2527	1312	1212	.520
11	SFG	2526	1310	1215	.519
14	PHI	2526	1260	1266	.499
17	MIN	2525	1251	1273	.496
19	CIN	2530	1232	1295	.488
20	CHC	2524	1230	1294	.487
24	BAL	2525	1175	1347	.466
27	DET	2526	1108	1418	.439
28	PIT	2523	1091	1431	.433

"Old 16" teams occupy the top five spots and 10 of the top 15 spots. But Baltimore (13 straight losing seasons, 1998-2010), Detroit (12 straight losing seasons, 1994-2005), and Pittsburgh (18 straight losing seasons, 1993-2010) have turned in especially embarrassing performances.

The Lively Ball Eras

It is generally thought that the lively ball era began in 1920. In that year, the number of home runs per major-league game jumped to 0.511, eclipsing the previous "modern" high of 0.411, set in 1911. But the home-run barrage was only beginning in 1920. It jumped to 0.762 per game in 1921 -- nearly double the 1911 mark -- and continued around a rising trend through the rest of the pre-World War II era:

Despite Babe Ruth's dominance in the early years of the lively ball era -- he hit almost 9 percent of ML home runs in 1920, and more than 6 percent in 1927 -- it wasn't until 1931 that the AL began to outslug the NL every year. But there was plenty of slugging to go around, as the peaks and high valleys of 1930-1941 attest. I attribute the higher home-run output of those years to arrival of a new generation of players, who were selected more often than not for their slugging ability and encouraged to cultivate that ability.

But the real lively ball eras were yet to come:

Following a lull from 1942 through 1946, the home-run barrage resumed in 1947, with the post-war return of slugging veterans and the influx of newcomers raised in the slugging tradition. The second lively ball era peaked in 1961. It subsided with the "era of the pitcher" and the first waves of expansion. But even at its lowest ebb in the 1970s and 1989s, the pace of home-run production exceeded the peaks of the first lively ball era, with only a few exceptions.

Then came 1994 and a third era. This one, sad to say, probably owed its existence not to a "juiced" baseball but to "juiced" baseball players. Given the crackdown on performance-enhancing substances, the rate of home-run production in 2010 (to date) has dropped to that of 1961 -- when the "juice" in the game came from a performance-inhibiting substance known as alcohol.

I hereby declare the following eras:

1901-1919 -- Deadball ("modern")

1920-1941 -- Lively Ball I

1942-1946 -- Wartime Lull

1947-1961 -- Lively Ball II

1962-1993 -- High Plateau

1994-2xxx -- Juiced Player

Future Hall of Famers?

The induction of Andre Dawson into the Hall of Fame provides a new benchmark for admission:

• a career OPS+* of at least 119 and

• a career BA of at least .279

By that standard, there are 45 players (past and present) with substantial careers (at least 8,000 plate appearances) who deserve (or will deserve) membership in the Hall of Fame. Here they are, ranked by career OPS+ and then by career BA:

OPS+ rank	Player	OPS+	BA
1	Barry Bonds	181	.298
2	Frank Thomas	156	.301
3	Manny Ramirez	155	.313
4	Jeff Bagwell	149	.297
5	Edgar Martinez	147	.312
6	Alex Rodriguez	146	.303
7	Jason Giambi	143	.282
8	Vladimir Guerrero	143	.320
9	Chipper Jones	142	.306
10	Gary Sheffield	140	.292
11	Larry Walker	140	.313
12	Todd Helton	138	.324
13	Carlos Delgado	138	.280
14	Bob Johnson	138	.296
15	Will Clark	137	.303
16	Reggie Smith	137	.287
17	Sherry Magee	136	.291
18	Ken Griffey	135	.284
19	Fred McGriff	134	.284
20	Rafael Palmeiro	132	.288
21	Ken Singleton	132	.282
22	Bobby Abreu	130	.296
23	John Olerud	128	.295
24	Keith Hernandez	128	.296
25	Joe Torre	128	.297
26	Ellis Burks	126	.291
27	Bernie Williams	125	.297
28	Bobby Bonilla	124	.279
29	Rusty Staub	124	.279
30	Bob Elliott	124	.289
31	Jimmy Ryan	124	.308
32	Jeff Kent	123	.290
33	Tim Raines	123	.294
34	Cesar Cedeno	123	.285
35	Hal McRae	122	.290
36	Ed Konetchy	122	.281
37	Dave Parker	121	.290
38	Al Oliver	121	.303
39	George Van Haltren	121	.316
40	Harold Baines	120	.289
41	Paul O'Neill	120	.288
42	Jose Cruz	120	.284
43	Derek Jeter	119	.314
44	Mark Grace	119	.303
45	Stan Hack	119	.301

BA rank	Player	OPS+	BA
1	Todd Helton	138	.324
2	Vladimir Guerrero	143	.320
3	George Van Haltren	121	.316
4	Derek Jeter	119	.314
5	Manny Ramirez	155	.313
6	Larry Walker	140	.313
7	Edgar Martinez	147	.312
8	Jimmy Ryan	124	.308
9	Chipper Jones	142	.306
10	Alex Rodriguez	146	.303
11	Will Clark	137	.303
12	Al Oliver	121	.303
13	Mark Grace	119	.303
14	Frank Thomas	156	.301
15	Stan Hack	119	.301
16	Barry Bonds	181	.298
17	Jeff Bagwell	149	.297
18	Joe Torre	128	.297
19	Bernie Williams	125	.297
20	Bob Johnson	138	.296
21	Bobby Abreu	130	.296
22	Keith Hernandez	128	.296
23	John Olerud	128	.295
24	Tim Raines	123	.294
25	Gary Sheffield	140	.292
26	Sherry Magee	136	.291
27	Ellis Burks	126	.291
28	Jeff Kent	123	.290
29	Hal McRae	122	.290
30	Dave Parker	121	.290
31	Bob Elliott	124	.289
32	Harold Baines	120	.289
33	Rafael Palmeiro	132	.288
34	Paul O'Neill	120	.288
35	Reggie Smith	137	.287
36	Cesar Cedeno	123	.285
37	Ken Griffey	135	.284
38	Fred McGriff	134	.284
39	Jose Cruz	120	.284
40	Jason Giambi	143	.282
41	Ken Singleton	132	.282
42	Ed Konetchy	122	.281
43	Carlos Delgado	138	.280
44	Bobby Bonilla	124	.279
45	Rusty Staub	124	.279

___
* OPS+ is on-base percentage plus slugging average (OPS) adjusted for where and when a batter compiled his statistics.

Statistics derived from the Play Index at Baseball-Reference.com.