Let's look at Jeter's value to the Yankees since 1996, the first year for which his salary is known:
| OPS+ per | ||||||
| Year | Age | OPS+ | Salary | $10 mn | ||
| 1996 | 22 | 101 | $130,000 | 0.07769 | ||
| 1997 | 23 | 103 | $550,000 | 0.01873 | ||
| 1998 | 24 | 127 | $750,000 | 0.01693 | ||
| 1999 | 25 | 153 | $5,000,000 | 0.00306 | ||
| 2000 | 26 | 128 | $10,000,000 | 0.00128 | ||
| 2001 | 27 | 123 | $12,600,000 | 0.00098 | ||
| 2002 | 28 | 111 | $14,600,000 | 0.00076 | ||
| 2003 | 29 | 125 | $15,600,000 | 0.00080 | ||
| 2004 | 30 | 114 | $18,600,000 | 0.00061 | ||
| 2005 | 31 | 125 | $19,600,000 | 0.00064 | ||
| 2006 | 32 | 132 | $20,600,000 | 0.00064 | ||
| 2007 | 33 | 121 | $21,600,000 | 0.00056 | ||
| 2008 | 34 | 102 | $21,600,000 | 0.00047 | ||
| 2009 | 35 | 125 | $21,600,000 | 0.00058 | ||
| 2010 | 36 | 90 | $22,600,000 | 0.00040 | ||
| 119 | $205,430,000 | 0.00087 |
OPS+ is a measure of offensive performance. It is on-base percentage plus slugging average (OPS) adjusted for year and ballpark. An OPS+ of 100 represents the average for the league and year.
Jeter's on-field value to the Yankees, as an offensive player, peaked in 1999, when his OPS+ reached a career-high 153. His OPS+ per $10 million of salary in that year was 0.00306. It has been all downhill since, both in terms of OPS+ (though there have been some good years since 1999) and OPS+ per $10 million of salary. The latter figure dwindled to 0.00040 in 2010, when Jeter's OPS+ fell to 90, that is, 90 percent of the league average.
It is only reasonable to assume that Jeter's productivity will decline further from its peak, even if he recovers somewhat from the 2010's unusually weak performance. Even at $15 million per season, Jeter will be an over-priced commodity, given his likely on-field performance.
So, if Jeter is worth $15 million a year, or more, it's only because of his leadership qualities (which can't be measured) and his draw as a symbol of Yankee greatness. I suspect that Jeter's leadership qualities will not be enough to reverse the Yankees' evident decline. Further, that decline will more than offset whatever value Jeter has at the box office.
I look forward, with sadness, to some relatively lean years in the Bronx, and to buyer's remorse on the part of the Yankees if they settle with Jeter for much more than $15 million a season.
