Friday, November 12, 2010

The American League's Greatest Hitters

 SUPERSEDED BY "THE AMERICAN LEAGUE'S GREATEST HITTERS: III"

Through a painstaking series of adjustments for changes in playing standards and conditions, and for differences among ballparks, I have reassessed the single-season and career batting averages of the American League's top hitters. The reassessment covers 120 players whose career average in the American League is at least .285 in at least 5,000 plate appearances.

I will devote a future post to a detailed explanation of the adjustments. In this post, I give an overview of the adjustments and present a revised ranking of the 120 players. I also discuss -- but do not adjust for -- the effects of age on the revised batting averages and relative standing of players.

I make three kinds of adjustments to nominal (official) BA. One adjustment is a time constant, which captures gradual changes from 1901 to the present that have worked against batters. Such changes would be the improvement of fielding gloves (which have made it harder to get hits, while also raising fielding averages), the introduction of night baseball, and the gradual increase in proportion of games played at night.

A second adjustment is an annual factor that captures the up-and-down swings in the relative difficulty of hitting. These swings have occurred because of changes in the ball, the frequency of its replacement, the size of the strike zone, and the height of the pitching mound, and perhaps other factors.

A third adjustment -- one that is unique to each team-park combination -- reflects the relative ease or difficulty of hitting in the various parks that have been used in the American League. In many cases the adjustment factor for a given park changes during the years of its use because of significant changes in the dimensions of the field.

The following graph combines the effects of the first two adjustments into a single number for each season. A value greater than 1 means that each hitter's nominal average for that season was increased to some degree. A value less than 1 means that each hitter's average for that season was decreased to some degree.


The largest upward adjustments affect averages compiled in the "deadball" years of 1902-1909 and 1913-1916, and in the "era of the pitcher," from 1962 through 1975. The largest downward adjustments affect averages compiled in the first two years of the AL's existence and the "lively" ball era, which -- judging from the numbers -- began in 1919 and lasted through 1938.

The final adjustments -- for differences in parks -- range widely. For example, Red Sox hiiters (including Ted Williams) suffered a penalty of 5.9 percent for the 1934-2010 seasons, when Fenway Park acquired its present dimensions. By contrast, Yankees who played in the original Yankee Stadium from 1923 through 1973 earned a boost of 4 percent because the original park (despite its short foul lines) was inimical to batters (including Joe DiMaggio).

The following graph captures the total effect of the three adjustments. Each point represents one of the 120 hitters.

The pattern, which the curved line emphasizes, is consistent with the adjustments summarized in the first graph. The points don't fall neatly on the curved line for three reasons: (1) variations in the length of players' careers, (2) variations in the numbers of at-bats across seasons (and thus in the weight attached to a season in compiling a career average), and (3) the park-adjustment factor, which varies widely from park to park and (sometimes) for a particular park, if its configuration changed significantly.

How did the various adjustments affect the rankings? First, as would be expected because of the inflation of batting averages in the 1920s and 1930s, those decades are over-represented among the 120 hitters, as shown in the following table. ("Median year" refers to the decade in which a player's median year occurs. For example, Ty Cobb's career spanned 1905-1928, so he is counted as a member of the 1911-1920 decade in the following table and the one after it.)

Distribution of Hitters, by Decade





Median year Number Percent
1901-1910 2 1.7%
1911-1920 7 5.8%
1921-1930 17 14.2%
1931-1940 21 17.5%
1941-1950 8 6.7%
1951-1960 8 6.7%
1961-1970 3 2.5%
1971-1980 8 6.7%
1981-1990 10 8.3%
1991-2000 22 18.3%
2001-2010 14 11.7%


120 100%


The adjustments to nominal batting averages did a good job of rectifying the bias toward players of the 1920s and 1930s:


Average Rank, by Decade

Median year Nominal Adjusted Change*
1901-1910 28 17 11
1911-1920 22 23 -1
1921-1930 29 65 -36
1931-1940 44 83 -39
1941-1950 60 63 -3
1951-1960 84 54 30
1961-1970 83 43 40
1971-1980 86 49 37
1981-1990 79 52 27
1991-2000 79 64 15
2001-2010 58 79 -21

* Positive number represents improvement (higher average rank); negative number represents slippage (lower average rank).

Until someone convinces me otherwise, I conclude that the top hitters of the "deadball" era really were great by comparison with those who came later. They are not alone at the top, however. Among the top 10 in the following table are a contemporary player (Ichiro Suzuki), a player of recent memory (Rod Carew), and three Yankees who enjoyed great years in the 1920s and 1930s (Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, and Joe DiMaggio). Here, then, are all 120 hitters, listed in the order of adjusted rank:

Adjusted Nominal Player Years in AL Batting average % change # change
rank* rank (all-caps = Hall of Fame; asterisk = From To Nominal Adjusted in BA in rank


active)





1 12 Ichiro Suzuki* 2001 2010 .331 .353 6.2% 11
2 1 TY COBB 1905 1928 .366 .353 -3.9% -1
3 2 Shoeless Joe Jackson 1908 1920 .356 .351 -1.3% -1
4 10 NAP LAJOIE 1901 1916 .336 .333 -0.9% 6
5 3 TRIS SPEAKER 1907 1928 .345 .331 -4.0% -2
6 16 ROD CAREW 1967 1985 .328 .331 0.9% 10
7 11 EDDIE COLLINS 1906 1930 .333 .326 -2.2% 4
8 6 BABE RUTH 1914 1934 .343 .324 -6.1% -2
9 8 LOU GEHRIG 1923 1939 .340 .323 -5.4% -1
10 18 JOE DIMAGGIO 1936 1951 .325 .322 -0.7% 8
11 4 TED WILLIAMS 1939 1960 .344 .319 -7.9% -7
12 15 WADE BOGGS 1982 1999 .328 .319 -2.8% 3
13 47 Don Mattingly 1982 1995 .307 .318 3.3% 34
14 74 MICKEY MANTLE 1951 1968 .298 .317 6.0% 60
15 7 HARRY HEILMANN 1914 1929 .342 .315 -8.9% -8
16 30 Derek Jeter* 1995 2010 .314 .314 0.1% 14
17 5 GEORGE SISLER 1915 1928 .344 .313 -9.8% -12
18 36 Edgar Martinez 1987 2004 .312 .312 0.1% 18
19 25 KIRBY PUCKETT 1984 1995 .318 .311 -2.1% 6
20 89 EDDIE MURRAY 1977 1997 .295 .311 5.1% 69
21 99 Thurman Munson 1969 1979 .292 .310 6.1% 78
22 53 PAUL MOLITOR 1978 1998 .306 .310 1.2% 31
23 35 Magglio Ordonez* 1997 2010 .312 .310 -0.6% 12
24 31 Harvey Kuenn 1952 1960 .313 .309 -1.4% 7
25 44 Roberto Alomar 1991 2004 .309 .308 -0.4% 19
26 9 AL SIMMONS 1924 1944 .337 .308 -9.3% -17
27 17 EARLE COMBS 1924 1935 .325 .308 -5.6% -10
28 68 Minnie Minoso 1949 1964 .300 .307 2.4% 40
29 70 Joe Judge 1915 1934 .299 .307 2.7% 41
30 45 SAM CRAWFORD 1903 1917 .309 .307 -0.5% 15
31 55 Tony Oliva 1962 1976 .304 .307 0.7% 24
32 92 Mickey Rivers 1970 1984 .295 .306 3.7% 60
33 38 Baby Doll Jacobson 1915 1927 .311 .305 -1.9% 5
34 83 Carl Crawford* 2002 2010 .296 .305 2.8% 49
35 67 Julio Franco 1983 1999 .301 .304 1.3% 32
36 54 GEORGE BRETT 1973 1993 .305 .304 -0.3% 18
37 56 Paul O'Neill 1993 2001 .303 .304 0.1% 19
38 48 HOME RUN BAKER 1908 1922 .307 .303 -1.2% 10
39 72 Cecil Cooper 1971 1987 .298 .303 1.7% 33
40 20 SAM RICE 1915 1934 .322 .303 -6.2% -20
41 14 HEINIE MANUSH 1923 1936 .331 .303 -9.1% -27
42 32 BILL DICKEY 1928 1946 .313 .303 -3.3% -10
43 101 Lou Piniella 1964 1984 .291 .302 3.9% 58
44 29 Cecil Travis 1933 1947 .314 .302 -3.9% -15
45 103 Carney Lansford 1978 1992 .290 .302 4.1% 58
46 41 LUKE APPLING 1930 1950 .310 .302 -2.8% -5
47 50 Stuffy McInnis 1909 1922 .307 .302 -1.7% 3
48 114 Bill Skowron 1954 1967 .286 .301 5.2% 66
49 98 Luis Polonia 1987 2000 .292 .301 3.0% 49
50 84 Garret Anderson 1994 2008 .296 .301 1.5% 34
51 79 AL KALINE 1953 1974 .297 .300 0.9% 28
52 52 GEORGE KELL 1943 1957 .306 .300 -2.2% 0
53 34 Manny Ramirez* 1993 2010 .312 .300 -4.1% -19
54 81 Bernie Williams 1991 2006 .297 .299 0.7% 27
55 64 Frank Thomas 1990 2008 .301 .299 -0.8% 9
56 13 JIMMIE FOXX 1925 1942 .331 .298 -11.1% -43
57 97 Mike Hargrove 1974 1985 .292 .298 1.8% 40
58 42 Bobby Veach 1912 1925 .310 .298 -4.2% -16
59 60 Alex Rodriguez* 1994 2010 .303 .297 -2.0% 1
60 91 Kevin Seitzer 1986 1997 .295 .297 0.6% 31
61 105 John Olerud 1989 2005 .289 .297 2.5% 44
62 102 NELLIE FOX 1947 1963 .290 .297 2.2% 40
63 107 Wally Joyner 1986 2001 .289 .296 2.4% 44
64 104 Harold Baines 1980 2001 .289 .296 2.2% 40
65 112 Carlos Guillen* 1998 2010 .286 .296 3.2% 47
66 116 ROBIN YOUNT 1974 1993 .285 .295 3.4% 50
67 119 Gene Woodling 1946 1962 .284 .295 3.6% 52
68 90 LOU BOUDREAU 1938 1952 .295 .294 -0.3% 22
69 111 Raul Ibanez 1996 2008 .286 .294 2.8% 42
70 120 YOGI BERRA 1946 1963 .284 .294 3.5% 50
71 86 Kenny Lofton 1992 2007 .296 .293 -1.0% 15
72 23 HANK GREENBERG 1930 1946 .319 .293 -8.8% -49
73 93 Albert Belle 1989 2000 .295 .293 -0.8% 20
74 94 Pete Runnels 1951 1962 .294 .292 -0.7% 20
75 82 Shannon Stewart 1995 2008 .297 .292 -1.5% 7
76 66 Ivan Rodriguez 1991 2009 .301 .292 -3.0% -10
77 110 Mickey Vernon 1939 1958 .287 .292 1.8% 33
78 95 Hal McRae 1973 1987 .293 .292 -0.4% 17
79 96 Tony Fernandez 1983 2001 .293 .292 -0.4% 17
80 115 Miguel Tejada* 1997 2010 .286 .292 2.0% 35
81 22 MICKEY COCHRANE 1925 1937 .320 .291 -10.0% -59
82 78 Mike Sweeney 1995 2010 .298 .291 -2.4% -4
83 21 CHARLIE GEHRINGER 1924 1942 .320 .290 -10.5% -62
84 80 Buddy Lewis 1935 1949 .297 .290 -2.5% -4
85 49 George Burns 1914 1929 .307 .289 -6.2% -36
86 26 GOOSE GOSLIN 1921 1938 .316 .289 -9.4% -60
87 58 Mike Greenwell 1985 1996 .303 .288 -5.1% -29
88 51 Johnny Pesky 1942 1954 .307 .287 -6.7% -37
89 24 EARL AVERILL 1929 1940 .318 .287 -10.8% -65
90 88 Juan Gonzalez 1989 2005 .295 .287 -3.0% -2
91 43 John Stone 1928 1938 .310 .287 -8.0% -48
92 19 Ken Williams 1918 1929 .324 .286 -13.1% -73
93 100 Ken Griffey 1989 2010 .291 .286 -1.8% 7
94 65 Billy Goodman 1947 1961 .301 .286 -5.2% -29
95 28 Bibb Falk 1920 1931 .314 .286 -10.0% -67
96 113 Willie Wilson 1976 1992 .286 .286 0.0% 17
97 108 Rafael Palmeiro 1989 2005 .288 .285 -0.8% 11
98 59 Buddy Myer 1925 1941 .303 .285 -6.1% -39
99 69 Michael Young* 2000 2010 .300 .285 -5.3% -30
100 73 JIM RICE 1974 1989 .298 .285 -4.6% -27
101 39 Bob Meusel 1920 1929 .311 .285 -9.2% -62
102 46 Gee Walker 1931 1941 .307 .283 -8.6% -56
103 62 Ben Chapman 1930 1941 .302 .282 -7.1% -41
104 27 Jack Tobin 1916 1927 .315 .282 -11.5% -77
105 117 Alan Trammell 1977 1996 .285 .282 -1.2% 12
106 76 Mo Vaughn 1991 2000 .298 .281 -5.8% -30
107 106 Chuck Knoblauch 1991 2002 .289 .281 -2.7% -1
108 33 JOE SEWELL 1920 1933 .312 .281 -11.0% -75
109 37 Bing Miller 1921 1936 .311 .281 -10.9% -72
110 85 Bob Johnson 1933 1945 .296 .280 -6.0% -25
111 109 Johnny Damon* 1995 2010 .287 .280 -2.8% -2
112 118 CARL YASTRZEMSKI 1961 1983 .285 .279 -2.2% 6
113 61 Hal Trosky 1933 1946 .302 .278 -8.6% -52
114 40 Joe Vosmik 1930 1944 .311 .278 -11.6% -74
115 71 Sam West 1927 1942 .299 .276 -8.2% -44
116 77 Pete Fox 1933 1945 .298 .276 -8.0% -39
117 75 Dom DiMaggio 1940 1953 .298 .276 -8.1% -42
118 63 JOE CRONIN 1928 1945 .302 .275 -9.7% -55
119 87 Doc Cramer 1929 1948 .296 .274 -7.9% -32
120 57 Charlie Jamieson 1915 1932 .303 .274 -10.8% -63









* The adjusted rank considers only the 120 players listed here. Players not listed could outrank some of the players near the bottom of the list.

The names of Hall-of-Famers are capitalized to draw your attention to several who were enshrined mainly on the strength of grossly inflated batting averages.

There is more work to be done, especially with respect to age. Consider, for example, Shoeless Joe Jackson, whose career ended at age 30. Had Jackson continued to play until he was 40, say, his career average would have declined, and with it his position on the list.

Ichiro Suzuki didn't play in the U.S. until he was 27. Would his career average be even higher if he had crossed over the Pacific in his early 20s? He is atop the list because of his post-32 performance, relative to Ty Cobb's.

Then there is the case of Ted Williams, whose average and ranking slipped markedly because he enjoyed the friendly confines of Fenway Park. But Williams, who also hit well in his "old age," missed a lot of peak batting time during WWII and the Korean War.

I will end, for now, with this tantalizing comparison of Suzuki, Cobb, Jackson, and Williams:


Cobb's consistent brilliance from age 22 to age 32 borders on the amazing. Williams was a great "old" hitter, as Suzuki is proving to be. It is evident that Jackson, despite the closeness of his average to Cobb's, probably wouldn't have caught Cobb, unless he had finished in a Suzuki-like manner.

ADDENDUM:

Final, age-adjusted BA for the top-3 all-time AL hitters:

Cobb 0.363919
Suzuki 0.358241
Jackson 0.355946

Go here for details.